Tanks in the night spark coup talk

Thai Takes

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

TWENTY-TWO V-150 armoured personnel carriers (APCs) rumbled into the streets of Bangkok on Monday night. And – not surprising for politically-jittery Thailand – the immediate assumption was the military had launched a coup.

It turned out that the APCs were decommissioned from an operation in the country’s restive southern provinces and were on their way via Bangkok to Pathum Thani (a town north of the Thai capital) for maintenance.

The next day the military apologised for causing panic and for not informing the public about the movement of the APCs.

It also denied that the army would stage a coup.

“It is out of fashion to talk about a coup,” said army spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd.

On the contrary – thanks to recent events (such as the crack in the Abhisit Vejjajiva-led coalition government and the mysterious slap-in-the-face grenade attack on the office of the Army Chief General Anupong Paojinda) and conjectures (involving surprise, surprise Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai Prime Minister who was ousted in a 2006 coup) – it is once again fashionable to talk about an imminent coup.

This week Thai English-language newspapers ran coup-related news articles (No impending coup, Anupong insists) and opinion pieces (Coup, what coup? and Full circle to another military coup?).

The Nation also Tweeted: “Here’s one for 2day: A 14-yr-old nephew of Pojaman’s told his school friends to ‘get out of Bkk’ on Feb 26. (Translated: Here’s a rumour for today – A 14-year-old nephew of (Thaksin’s former wife) Pojaman told his schoolmates to “get out of Bangkok” on Feb 26 (which is the day the Supreme Court decides on the 76bil baht (RM7.6bil) that was seized from Thaksin after the 2006 coup).

But a coup by an Abhisit-friendly military against the Abhisit-led coalition government? Mind boggling.

But this is Thailand. And there is such a thing as a “friendly” coup.

In his Friday column in the Bangkok Post, Abhisit’s cousin Suranand Vejjajiva, who served in the Thaksin Shinawatra Cabinet and is now a political analyst, wrote:

“The general analysis among political pundits is that, with pressure over the verdict on Thaksin’s 76bil-baht assets case to be handed down on Feb 26, the Red Shirts (a pro-Thaksin movement) could escalate their rallies and become uncontrollable.

“Riots could turn violent and there would be sabotage. The top brass have been dissatisfied with PM Abhisit and the Democrats in controlling the situation. There have been signs lately that they are distancing themselves from the government.

“Given the circumstances, if another putsch is to be carried out, it could be the first one in history with the intent of getting rid of the opposition rather than to overthrow the government. It is Thaksin who is the target, not Abhisit.

“Thaksin is viewed as a nuisance, and definitely a threat to the military’s security if he ever manages to stage a comeback. In addition, Thaksin is still widely popular, with polls indicating that if an election were held today, Thaksin’s Puea Thai Party would win more than 200 seats, if not an absolute majority in Parliament.”

The anticipation of a coup is the thing that I will miss the most when I end my stint in Bangkok as The Star’s Thailand correspondent (which began a month before the Sept 19, 2006 coup). Almost every other month since I’ve lived in Thailand, tongues have wagged that a coup was imminent.

Though the political pundits and fortune tellers have been wrong on their coup predictions, Thailand has seen:

a) A judicial coup (the court removed Pro-Thaksin Samak Sundaravej as Prime Minister for moonlighting as a chef in a television cooking show).

b) A TV coup (army chief General Anupong – flanked by the navy chief, the air force chief and the police chief – appeared on television to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law and Samak’s successor).

c) Several “silent” coups (including the Abhisit-led government declaring a state of emergency to allow the military to crack down on the Red Shirts protest during Songkran, the Thai new year, in April 2009).

Today as I fly back to Kuala Lumpur, I wonder whether there will be a coup in Bangkok tonight.

(Published in The Star on January 30, 2010)

Explosive rumour is true after all

Thai Takes

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

AT AROUND 3am on Jan 15, an M79 grenade was fired into the compound of the Thai Army headquarters in Bangkok, landing near the office of Army chief General Anupong Paochinda.

The Thai authorities kept silent about the attack until the media broke the story a week later. In fact, as late as Thursday, Defence spokesman Thanathip Sawangsaeng had claimed that ill-intentioned people were trying to create chaos by circulating such a rumour.

Later that day, Army spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd acknowledged that the “rumour” was indeed true.

However, he said the army was not trying to cover up the attack but that nobody had asked about it.

According to Sansern, as reported by the Bangkok Post, a grenade was fired from an M79 grenade launcher into the sixth floor of the headquarters building, damaging a kitchen next to a fitness room.

“The grenade was likely launched at night because no one heard the sound of the explosion,” he said. He, however, denied that the blast occurred near the office of the Army chief.

Sansern said the army believed the attacker was not trying to injure or kill anyone but was trying to seek publicity.

“I talked to Gen Anupong, and he was not worried about the situation, nor did he feel humiliated. But he insisted that action must be taken under the law.”

The M79 grenade launcher, according to a report in The Nation, is the weapon of choice in recent attacks on political enemies.

In 2008, seven M79 grenades were fired (on different occasions) at supporters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD or Yellow Shirts as the anti-Thaksin movement is popularly known) who were camped at the office of the Prime Minister in Bangkok.

And in November 2009, PAD co-leader Sondhi Limthongkul was also targeted in an M79 attack. But it missed the target.

The usual suspect for M79 grenade attacks is Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, a 59-year-old military specialist.

In 2008, Khattiya, who despises the Yellow Shirts, warned that if they continued their siege of the Prime Minister’s office, they would be doing it at their own risk.

Soon, grenades were launched at them, killing and injuring several Yellow Shirts supporters.

In November 2009, he made headlines when he slipped into Cambodia to meet up with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the number one enemy of the Abhisit Vejjajiva-led coalition government.

On Thursday, the military authorised the police to raid Khattiya’s residence in the compound of the 4th Cavalry Battalion in Bangkok. They found an M26 grenade and a 38-calibre pistol with a number of bullets.

Later, police raided the home of Khattiya’s driver, Sergeant Natsit Suwannarat, and discovered more weapons – 32 grenades, 700 rounds of M16 ammunition, three packs of C4 explosives and 13 sticks of TNT, as well as some spent shells.

Khattiya denied that he was involved in the M79 grenade attack as he was not in the Thai capital at the time of the attack. In a telephone interview with The Nation, he said: “Many people dislike Anupong, or maybe some ‘third hand’ wants to create chaos.

“Don’t blame me. You have no evidence to pin it on me. If I had done it, he’d be dead, but I would not do such a thing, because he’s my friend.”

Previously, Khattiya had warned that if he was suspended (over the trip to visit Thaksin in Cambodia and for insubordination in publicly criticising Anupong), he would see to it that Anupong “could not go out on the streets”.

He has since been in conflict with Anupong over the army chief’s role in suspending him from active duty. On Thursday, in a scathing opinion piece in the Bangkok Post, its former editor Veera Prateepchaikul wrote:

“The tightened guard around the army chief following the recent grenade attack may give him a sense of security, but for the public at large the big question remains: how can we feel safe when the army chief himself is unsafe and needs more protection?

“This outrageous incident is a direct challenge to the authority of General Anupong in his capacity as the army commander-in-chief, not to mention a huge slap in the face.”

(Published in The Star on January 23, 2009)

Thai food everywhere

THAI TAKES

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

THE other day I was eating Thai food in a restaurant in a Bangkok suburb with a Malaysian tourist and my guest was surprised that the dishes did not taste like the ones in her favourite Thai restaurant in Kuala Lumpur.

“What’s the difference?” I asked.

“Well, now that I’ve tasted this,” the 30-something woman said, pointing at her Tom Yam Kung, “the one in KL tasted very Malaysian”.

Me, being me, I had to gloat over why I brought her to Kratip restaurant in Bang Kapi Mall, about 30km away from the heart of Bangkok’s tourist traps.

“The food here is authentic Thai. If you look around, there’s not a single farang (Thai for ‘westerners’) in this restaurant,” I said.

And then exaggerated, “See, everybody is drinking SangSom (a popular brand of Thai whisky).”

“What’s authentic Thai food?” she asked.

I was stumped. An unsophisticated foodie would say “spicy”. But that would be incorrect as Thai cuisine can’t be boxed in; it varies from region to region.

For example, Kaeng Matsaman Neua (Massaman Curry with beef), a popular southern Thai dish, is similar to the beef curry found in Kelantan, which was part of the Pattani kingdom.

Her question was food for thought. And a few days later, I headed to Bo.lan, a one-year-old fine dining Bangkok restaurant with the catch phrase “Thai food as it ought to be”.

Bo.lan does not dumb down its dishes to cater for the non-Thai palate as it believes that the food it is cooking must be prepared correctly.

A customer insisting on prawn instead of beef for its Green Curry with Beef will be told: “We are sorry sir/madam, unfortunately we are not able to do that today because our green curry paste is made specifically for beef and to use prawn will be incorrect.”

The restaurant’s name is inspired from the name of the co-owners – Bo (the nickname of 29-year-old Thai Duangporn Songvisava) and Dylan Jones, a 28-year-old Australian.

Both chefs previously worked at Nahm (the only Thai restaurant to be awarded a Michelin star) in London.

“What’s authentic Thai food?” I asked Bo and Dylan.

“We were discussing this the other day, trying to pin down what Thai food really is,” said Dylan. “And I believe there are many factors that influence what real Thai food is.

“But it comes down to one thing, and that is the final product. The flavour of the dish dictates whether it is really authentic.

“For example, a real Green Curry is slightly salty, sweet (obviously from the coconut cream) and quite hot (as there is a lot of chilli in the paste). And it is non-authentic if it is salty and sweet but not that hot,” he explained.

“It is done that way (less spicy) because customers don’t want it hot.”

Bo added: “Tom Yam should be spicy. And if a customer comes here and says ‘I want a Tom Yam, but I don’t want it hot (with chilli)’, you can’t call it Tom Yam, you have to call it something else.”

Nodding, Dylan said: “You can’t put a Ferrari badge on a Toyota and call it a Ferrari.”

However, Bo conceded that there were Thai dishes that could be different in terms of spiciness. “Take Som Tam (papaya salad), you can have it with or without chilli.”

As I was curious to know why my friend thought that the Thai food in her favourite restaurant tasted “very Malaysian”, I asked Bo and Dylan for their take on the authenticity of Thai food in restaurants outside Thailand.

“That’s a tricky question,” said Bo. “In general, Thai restaurants abroad cater for the local palate.

“However, I believe that there are restaurants (overseas) such as Nahm which serve authentic Thai dishes.

“And in some restaurants, if you say you are Thai and you want to eat authentic Thai food, they will do it for you.”

But Bo said: “There are also Thai restaurants in Thailand that dumb down their flavour as they cater to tourists or foreigners.

“When a customer asks for the dish to be less spicy, they are more than willing to do so because they don’t want to lose that customer.” But how about the food?”

Dylan answered, “… to the determent of authenticity.”

(Published in The Star on January 16, 2010)

A peep into Thailand's future

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

A THAI fortune-teller predicted that “after a coup the country would have a new prime minister whose name begins with the Thai letter pronounced “Awe”.

In response to that prediction, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said: “There are people who want to bring about violence but it is my and the government’s duty not to let that happen. I reiterate that whoever thinks violence is an answer to this society is thinking wrong.”

Probably Abhisit could dismiss the prediction as it came from a fortune teller. But perhaps he should also read an article suggesting Thailand was in the early stages of a civil war that appeared in Naew Na daily (a Thai journal) on Dec 28.

It is a must-read because Prem Tinsulanonda, the 88-year-old adviser to the Thai King, says it is a must-read. And General Prem, a former unelected Prime Minister and army chief, is a puu yai (Thai for “senior elder”) whose words and action are taken seriously.

For example, when General Prem donned military attire to meet military leaders in his Bangkok residence on Dec 28, Thai political watchers speculated why the retired army chief was in uniform.

And then … the Sept 19, 2006, coup which ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra happened.

However, Admiral Phajun Tamprateep, personal secretary to Gen Prem, insisted that “there is nothing to interpret”, as reported by the Bangkok Post.

“Gen Prem is a soldier and he loves the military profession. He likes to wear the uniform on occasion, and he does so when he deems it appropriate,” Phajun explained.

On the day Gen Prem was in military uniform he told military leaders that an article published in Naew Na daily was “important and a must-read”.

The article, headlined We are in a period of civil war, was written by Chirmsak Pinthong, a critic of Thaksin.

Chirmsak contended that Thailand was in the initial stages of civil war. “On one side is the ‘legitimate government’ of the kingdom of Thailand and on the other side there are the Thaksin forces,” he said, as translated by thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com (a blog on Thai politics).

“They aim not just to overthrow the Abhisit government but to also radically change the system of government, eventually establishing a republic and a dictatorship.”

Chirmsak painted a scenario on how Thaksin would ignite a civil war.

The Thaksin forces, according to Chirmsak, would reject the authority of the Abhisit-led government (which it accused of being illegitimate). For example, ministers could not perform their duties in certain part of Thailand due to hostilities from the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts.

He wrote about the soldiers for hire in the Thaksin forces, referring to Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh (a former army chief and Prime Minister who recently joined the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai party) and the Class 10 army officers (who are Chavalit’s classmates).

“They are a minority, unlike the police who remain loyal to Thaksin, as evidenced by their failure to investigate the attacks on ‘peaceful PAD rallies, causing several deaths’,” said Chirmsak, a diehard supporter of the PAD (People’s Alliance for Democracy, an anti-Thaksin movement popularly colour-coded as the Yellow Shirts).

Chirmsak, as thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com colourfully translated, forecast: “The ‘big boss’ is firing off the ‘intercontinental missiles’ that ‘drop from the skies on the Kingdom of Thailand’. Some Red Shirts are the ‘infantry’ creating all the problems in the country.

“Others are the ‘artillery’, using television as their weapon. The Pheu Thai Party in parliament are the ‘cavalry in tanks’, protected by their parliamentary position but causing confusion. The ‘spies’ are the senior government officials who provide secret information, impede and disrupt.

“The civil war has begun but the outcome is not certain, so what can be done?," Chirmsak wrote. "The government is not going to be able to administer the country in any normal manner.

“The government needs to be more aggressive in maintaining the state’s power. The constitution has to be maintained. The power of the judiciary has to be protected so that it can enforce the law.”

(Published in The Star on January 9, 2009)

Thailand 2009: Take the quiz

Thai Takes

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

1) WHO is the most adored in Thailand?

a) Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva

b) Ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra

c) Lin Ping, the baby Panda

2) What fever swept Thailand?

a) H1N1 fever

b) Panda fever

c) Liverpool fever

d) All the above

3) Who shot Sondhi Limthongkul, co-leader of the Yellow Shirts, an anti-Thaksin movement?

a) The military

b) The police

c) Gunmen hired by Thaksin Shinawatra

d) Insurgents from Thailand’s Deep South

e) “a” and “b”

4) Who is Suvanant Kongying (according to CNNGo.com)?

a) Thailand’s most searched for celebrity on Google in 2009

b) Her lavish January wedding was aired on a Thai TV channel

c) She and her husband are tabloid fodder, enjoying a lengthy 10-year courtship after meeting on a soap opera set and dealing with some subsequent mother/daughter-in-law drama.

d) She’s the Thai actress who was misquoted by a Cambodian tabloid in 2003 as saying that Angkor Wat belonged to Thailand, leading to riots in Phnom Penh and destruction of the Thai embassy in Cambodia

e) All the above

5) What does Keigo Sato (nine years old), Narumi Hamada (18), Masami Hayashi (eight), Nobuhiro Nakyai (11) and Nujarin Tsuchiya (13) have in common?

a) They are Thai/Japanese

b) They are looking for their Japanese fathers who abandoned them

c) Their plight inspired a Japanese to form a Thai-based support group for them

d) All the above

6) Who did Thaksin finger as the invisible hand that masterminded the September 2006 coup?

a) Saranrat “Lydia” Wisutthithada, a Thai R&B singer

b) Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, the adviser to the Thai King

c) Sondhi Limthongkul, co-leader of the Yellow Shirts

7) Who said, “I am in charge of security affairs and I have heard of nobody planning a coup. If there is a coup, I will walk naked (as I) step down. I believe no groups (in the military) want to stage a coup now.”?

a) Army chief Anupong Paojinda

b) Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban

c) Police chief Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwan

8) What was Thaksin’s “big surprise” announcement on his birthday?

a) The self-exiled politician promised to return to Thailand to face justice

b) He appeared in a hologram for his birthday party in Bangkok

c) He vowed to become a monk

d) He launched a 100-channel TV station to connect Thailand with the world

e) He quit politics

9) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has ...

a) Accused Thailand of preparing a coup against his government

b) Contended that Abhisit “stole somebody’s chair” to seat himself in the prime minister’s chair

c) Appointed Thaksin as economic adviser to Cambodia

d) Maintained that the soured relationship between Bangkok and Phnom Penh will continue as long as Abhisit is Prime Minister

e) All the above

10) Gen Prem Tinsulanonda appeared publicly in full military uniform at his Bangkok residence on Dec 28. To pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party spokesman Prompong Nopparit this means:

a) The former army chief was hosting chiefs of the three armed forces and senior military officers who visited him to wish him Happy New Year

b) The 88-year-old puu yai (Thai for “senior elder”) wanted to feel healthy and strong

c) A sign another military coup is in the making

d) The confirmed bachelor simply loves donning a military uniform

11) What did young Abhisit do – as imagined by French cartoonist Stephff – at Oxford University during a human rights lecture?

a) Furiously take notes

b) Sleep through a lecture on “the oppression of ethnic minorities”

c) Eye a cute farang (Thai for “Westerner”) woman

12) Where in Thailand – as described by International Herald Tribune – does “the well water smell of solvents and when left in a glass overnight turns rust-coloured with algae”?

a) Nana Plaza, a three-storey building, which is home to a dozen go go bars, in Bangkok

b) Babylon, a Bangkok gay spa which TimeOut City Guide to Bangkok lauded as the “most beautiful sauna in the world”

c) Map Ta Phut, an industrial zone along the Gulf of Thailand

Answers:

1) c – since the unexpected birth of Lin Ping in Chiang Mai Zoo on May 27, Thais have been infected with panda fever. The cute baby panda even has a 24-hour “live” TV programme showing its daily activities

2) d

3) e – Since the April morning Bangkok shooting – where gunmen sprayed more than 100 bullets at Sondhi – arrest warrants have been issued against a policeman and two soldiers

4) e

5) d

6) b

7) b

8) d

9) e

10) c – Prompong said: “Gen Prem appeared in a military uniform shortly before the Sept 19, 2006 coup, and history could repeat itself again.”

11) b – on Dec 28, the Abhisit government repatriated thousands of ethnic Hmong asylum-seekers to Laos despite international objections that they could face persecution back home

12) c – 27 villagers from Map Ta Phut won a lawsuit (a landmark for Thailand’s environmental movement) which led to a slew of decisions that stopped US$9bil (RM31.1bil) worth of industrial projects

(Published in The Star on January 2, 2010)

Stir over girly calendar

Thai Takes

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

WHAT’s Thailand’s 365 days of lust?

It is a controversial 2010 calendar featuring nude models whose bodies are painted to cover their assets. The titillating calendar was produced to promote Leo beer, a low-end alcoholic beverage manufactured by Singha Corporation (owner of iconic Thai beer, Singha).

The Leo calendar has attracted uproar from the Thai Public Health Ministry, Alcohol Beverage and Tobacco Consumption Control Committee, the Friends of Women Foundation and feminists. It also led to the resignation of a Singha heiress.

So, what so controversial about a beer calendar featuring photographs of women, whose modesty is virtually covered up by paint?

Well, Section 32 of Thailand’s Alcohol Beverage Control Act 2008 prohibits the advertising of alcohol drinks, their brands and trademarks in a way that encourages consumption, directly or indirectly.

Deputy Public Health Minister Manit Nopamornbodee, as reported by Bangkok Post on Thursday, criticised claims by the brewer and the calendar publisher that the calendar was for sale, not for distribution.

“It is against the law whether it is for sale or for distribution. The calendar carries a logo of the alcohol product and people understand that message,” he roared.

Outside the Prime Minister’s office in Bangkok on Thursday, the Friends of Women Foundation protested against the distribution of the calendar it labeled “Nude Calendar”, “Sin Calendar” and “Lust Calendar”.

Its manager Chadet Chaowilai said many brewers exploited women as sex objects for the sake of their business.

“Such negative tendencies have contributed to the problem of sexual violence against women,” he said, adding that “companies, including Singha, should give up their old marketing strategies and move towards more creative ways to promote their products and adopt a sense of corporate social responsibility”.

Yesterday, the Bangkok Post editorialised: “The argument by the calendar publisher, former supermodel Methinee ‘Lukked’ Kingpayom, that the calendar was made for sale, not for free distribution, is for fools.

“The use of girly calendars as a promotional tool for alcoholic beverages has been around long enough that people understand exactly what is going on without any need for spurious explanations.”

The hot, hot, hot Leo calendar brought heat to the Bhirombhakdi family that controls Singha Corporation when a Singha heiress brought them to work – the Government House (Thai Prime Minister’s office).

On Wednesday, Chitpas Bhirombhakdi, a 23-year-old daughter of the executive vice-president of Singha Corporation, took out two boxes of calendars from the trunk of her BMW and distributed them at the Government House in Bangkok.

Government House officials (including deputy government spokesmen Phumin Leetheeraprasert and Supachai Jaisamut), MPs, police and journalists (covering the Government House beat) lined up to accept Chitpas’ generosity and within a few minutes, about 200 copies were snapped up.

(For the record: the two spokesmen denied taking the calendars, claiming they were only passing by.)

The next day, to accept responsibility for distributing the calendars inside the August compound of the Government House, Chitpas resigned as a political appointee at the PM’s secretariat office.

In her resignation letter, the heiress explained that she did not intend to distribute them.

“I brought along the calendars because some friends want to have them,” she said, as quoted by The Nation.

“Many reporters saw the calendars and wanted them. So, I gave them to everyone. I admit that I did not think that this would turn out to be a big deal. This happened because of my recklessness.”

“I’m upset that the incident affected not only my family and me but also many senior people whom I respect. I myself will take full responsibility for this by resigning from position in the PM’s secretariat.”

Chitpas said she would take the incident as a lesson, and hoped that in the future, she would be given another opportunity in politics.

Democrat MP for Songkhla Sirichok Sopha, a personal secretary to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, according to the Bangkok Post, said “the stir over the nude calendar had affected the reputation of the government as it was distributed at the Government House”.

He, however, denied the Democrat-led coalition government pressured Chitpas to resign, saying she made her own decision.

Probably the only good thing coming out from Chitpas’ generosity is the recipients have something to look forward to when they peek at the Leo calendar.

(Published in The Star on Dec 19. Photograph courtesy of The Nation)

Languishing with hope

THAI TAKES

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

LATELY I have been receiving letters via e-mail from “Bangkok Hilton” – the nickname for Bang Kwang Central Prison in Thailand, one of the most notorious prisons in the world.

The e-mail contained a scanned letter stamped “Censored” (by the Bang Kwang authority). The letter – which I call “love letters from Bang Kwang” – was written cursively in a polite but firm tone.

“Greeting, how are U doing? It’s been a while since UR last reply. Hope U are o.k. Actually I don’t want to bother U but as I said, U are the only one we have for media,” wrote Dennis Ooi in a letter dated Nov 13.

I met the 30-year-old Penangite in Bang Kwang late last year.

He was charged with importing drugs in 2003 after selling 700 Ecstasy pills to a Thai contact who turned out to be an undercover policeman. Not knowing how to read and write the Thai language, Ooi claimed that he was made to sign an admission so that a death sentence would be reduced to a life term.

He said that although his brother paid a Thai lawyer 1.5mil baht (about RM150,000) to represent him in court, the lawyer did not turn up.

Ooi felt it was unfair for him to languish in prison for 50 years for signing a sheet that stated he imported drugs. He also said that the Thai prisoners and prison wardens did not like Malaysian prisoners.

Malaysian prisoners, according to him, got the idea for a prisoner transfer treaty from Nigerians who serve a minimum time in Thailand and return home to serve their remaining term.

“We feel sad when we see them go home. We are serving the same sentence but they get to go back because their government has a transfer treaty with Thailand,” he said.

His plea – to be incarcerated in a Malaysian prison – was a front-page story in The Star on Dec 29.

Ooi wrote the letter because a Malaysian embassy official visited some Muslim inmates before Hari Raya and told them last December that Malaysia will negotiate with Thailand a transfer treaty to enable prisoners to finish their jail term in their homeland.

“We ask you again to write an article about our wish to go back before the meeting in December,” he appealed.

In his second letter, which I received on Nov 25, Ooi asked if I knew when Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak would visit Thailand.

“Wow!” I thought, “Even though he is incarcerated he even knows that his Prime Minister is visiting Thailand.”

I e-mailed that Najib would be visiting Bangkok on Dec 7 and then Narathiwat in southern Thailand on Dec 8 and 9.

I also told him that I would only be able to visit him the second or third week of December as I was off for a Manila trip.

I received on Dec 2 via e-mail a letter from Ooi. And he was worried that my article on his and other Malaysian inmates’ wish for Malaysia to sign a prisoner exchange treaty with Thailand would only see print after Najib’s Thai tour.

Ooi is not the only Malaysian in a Thai prison hoping Najib will discuss with Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva a treaty that will see them return home.

Last year, I visited a 40-something Malaysian woman in a Bangkok women’s prison as both she and her husband were convicted for credit card fraud.

She enthused that she and her husband – who is jailed in the nearby men’s prison – was excited as they could celebrate Hari Raya in a prison in Malaysia.

“A Malaysian embassy official told us that he had read in a Malaysian newspaper that Malaysia and Thailand had signed a prisoner exchange treaty.

“And because our crime is not serious, we will be one of the first to be sent home,” she said in a posh accent which betrayed her high society background.

She was crestfallen when told the report was inaccurate.

Perhaps Najib’s visit – which Bernama described as “four years after hitting the lowest point in their otherwise excellent bilateral ties, Malaysia and Thailand are on the brink of a historic milestone as their top leaders meet in the kingdom” – will change the prisoners’ lives.

(Published from The Star on Dec 5, 2009)

Name change and man of mystery

Thai Takes

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

IS TAKKI Shinegra, a globetrotting man of mystery, Thaksin Shinawatra?

The Thai vice Foreign Minister Panich Vikitsreth thinks so.

On Wednesday, he alleged that Thaksin’s name on passports issued by Montenegro, Nicaragua and Uganda was “Takki Shinegra”. And the name change, according to Panich, is making his ministry’s attempts to extradite the self-exiled former Thai prime minister — who fled Thailand in 2008 to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption passed in absentia — difficult.

However, Thaksin, who is arguably Thailand’s Twitter king, tweeted in Thai that “it’s useless for me to change my name since many people know me. I walk in department stores in any country and many people come to greet me”.

“I still use my old name but don’t say I’ve done a sex change. It can’t be helped as you guys are so stupid to revoke my Thai passport that you have no way to trace me through non-Thai documents,” added the billionaire politician, referring to the revocation of his diplomatic passport by the Abhisit Vejjajiva-led government.

This week — which is the first anniversary of the anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirts’ seizure of two Bangkok airports — Takki Shinegra was just a sideshow to two political dramas in Thailand.

Today, the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts were supposed to launch street protests — which they proclaimed to be the biggest show of force — in the Thai capital to force the collapse of the Abhisit government.

Anti-Thaksin forces criticised the planned rally as inappropriate as it was too close to King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s 82nd birthday on Dec 5. Ironically, these critics were silent when the Yellow Shirts seized Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport from Nov 25 to Dec 3 last year.

The seizure not only crippled the Thai tourism industry but was also “inappropriate” as it was held too close to the King’s birthday.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is also the Democrat Party’s secretary-general, alleged that the Red Shirts were recruiting foreign workers to participate in their street rally. And Thepthai Senpong, a democrat party spokesman, had a noteworthy method of sifting non-Thais among the Red Shirt protesters.

The authorities, according to him, will check the protesters’ national ID and those without one would be detained and asked to sing the Thai national anthem.

The Abhisit government also imposed the tough Internal Security Act (which allows the military to impose curfews, operate checkpoints, restrict movements of protesters and act fast if the rally turn violent) from Nov 28 to Dec 14 in Bangkok as it claimed it feared a repeat of the April violence.

In April, the Red Shirts (or, according to the Red Shirts leaders, agent provocateurs masquerading as Red Shirts supporters) turned Bangkok into a battlefield (i.e. hijacking military tanks and petrol tankers and torching public buses).

Two people were killed in the mayhem which was Thailand’s worst political violence since the bloody Black May uprising in 1992.

Facing pressure, the Red Shirts backtracked. “We Red Shirts want to express our loyalty to the king by postponing the rally indefinitely. We will meet to map out our stance after the middle of December,” Veera Musikapong, a Red Shirt leader, told reporters.

If Bangkok was a no-go zone for the Red Shirts, Chiang Mai, the stronghold of the Red Shirts and hometown of Thaksin, was a Thai city that Prime Minister Abhisit could not visit.

The Prime Minister cancelled his plan to preside over the closing ceremony of the Thai Chamber of Commerce annual conference because a pro-Thaksin protest leader made an indirect threat against his life on a community radio station.

“I am sure I will be safe if I go but others including the protesters, security officers and seminar participants may have problems because some protesters want to cause problems,” said Abhisit, who recently returned from Qatar.

After Abhisit’s Qatar visit, worried Thaksin loyalists tweeted to the self-exiled politician based in Dubai their concern that Abhisit had asked Middle East countries to extradite him.

Takki Shinegra, ermm, Thaksin, responded: “I would like to invite Abhisit to eat camel meat here so that he will have a better understanding about things.”

“The government should stop bothering other countries (about me),” he added. “Abhisit should also find time to visit all other member countries of the Asean because it’s a tradition.”

(Published in The Star on November 28, 2009)

The invisible elephant

THAI TAKES
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

SO what is really happening (politically) in Thailand?” a visiting American academician specialising in South-East Asian politics asked me.

Instinctively, I glanced to my left and then to my right. It was a habit I picked up whenever I was about to discuss the most taboo subject in Thailand.

On my right in the hip Bangkok cafe was a farang (Thai for “Westerner”) in a business suit with a cliched sexy Thai girl, while on my left were two Thais deep in conversation.

Looks like the coast is clear, I thought. And in a hushed tone I told her what was whispered among Thai political watchers but not discussed publicly, as they did not want to risk charges of lese majeste (a French phrase for “insulting the monarchy”). In the past two years, several people have been jailed for lese majeste.

In 2007, Oliver Jufer, a 57-year-old Swiss, was found to have spray-painted photographs of the King while drunk. He was sentenced to serve 10 years in prison, but subsequently he was pardoned by King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

In 2009, Harry Nicolaides, a 41-year-old Australian writer, was charged with lese majeste for a passage in his novel which briefly mentioned the “romantic entanglements and intrigues” of a fictional Crown Prince.

He pleaded guilty and was sentenced to three years in jail. Eventually, he received a royal pardon and was released.

In August this year, 46-year-old activist Daranee Chancheonsilapakul (nicknamed “Da Torpedo” for her fiery oratory) was jailed for 18 years for making a series of inflammatory speeches at pro-Thaksin Shinawatra “Red Shirt” rallies. Her remarks, according to The Nation, a Thai English-language newspaper, “were against the 2006 coup but laced with offensive references to the monarchy”.

I also discussed with the academician the recent controversial interview that self-exiled billionaire politician Thaksin gave to The Times (of London). The Times published the text of the interview on Times Online after Thaksin issued a statement saying that the newspaper’s report was “distorted” and “untrue”.

The Abhisit Vejjajiva-led government had banned the Thaksin interview, warning it would take “appropriate action” against media organisations that reported the content of the ousted prime minister’s interview which was “offensive to the royal institution”.

Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya told the media in Bangkok: “I would like to say that Thaksin’s interview violates the monarchy, which is the country’s main institution.”

“I wonder what the hidden agenda was that caused him to make this inappropriate move,” Kasit said, adding that the Justice Ministry would consider whether to charge Thaksin with lese majeste.

On the day I had a chat with the American academician, the police arrested Thatsaporn Rattanawongsa, a 42-year-old Thai radiologist, for allegedly spreading rumours about the King’s health which resulted in a plunge in the Thai stock market in October.

Last month, the stock market plummeted (at one point by 8.22% on Oct 15) over speculation about the health of King Bhumibol, who will be celebrating his 82nd birthday next month. The revered king, who is regarded by most Thais as a demi-god, has been hospitalised for two months for various ailments.

Thatsaporn was the fourth person arrested for damaging national security by posting false information online. In early November, three other Internet users were arrested on the same charge.

One of them was Teeranun Wipuchanin, a former UBS employee. Teeranun had translated a Bloomberg story and then posted it on Prachatai, a popular Thai-language online forum.

“Everybody on that day wanted to know what caused the market to fall. The stock market had already dropped and we did the translation in the evening,” she said.

Interestingly, as Bangkok Pundit in asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pundit-blog (a Thai political blog) pointed out, the Bloomberg story merely reported that the stock market dropped on speculation over the King’s health.

“Umm, there is a difference between reporting a rumour and reporting an analyst’s opinion that rumours are making the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand) fall – most people don’t even dispute the fact that the rumours were making the SET fall, but simply reporting this as opposed to the rumour is verboten (forbidden),” he blogged.

There’s an elephant in the room, but either Thais can’t see it or they are afraid to talk about it publicly.

(Published in The Star on November 21, 2009)

A method in Hun Sen’s madness?

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

POP quiz: Why did Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen poke Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in the eye by hosting the latter’s arch-rival Thaksin Shinawatra in Phnom Penh and rejecting Thailand’s request for extraditing his guest who faces a two-year jail term back home?

(a) Hun Sen was already in politics when Abhisit was still a child.

(b) Hun Sen is not worried about the Abhisit government shutting the Thai-Cambodian border as Cambodia would reciprocate by not allowing even one pig to cross the border.

(c) In 2008, Thailand’s exports to Cambodia were worth about US$2bil (RM6.75bil) while Cambodia’s export to Thailand was only US$90mil (RM303.8mil).

(d) Abhisit should not fear if Thaksin resides in Cambodia, as Hun Sen had appointed other foreigners (for example, Lee Myung-bak before he was elected South Korean president) as economic advisers.

(e) The self-exiled Thaksin has been travelling around the world, and Abhisit has not taken any action against countries the billionaire visited.

(f) The Red Shirts (a pro-Thaksin movement) support Thaksin’s appointment as Cambodia’s economic adviser, but the Yellow Shirts (an anti-Thaksin movement) don’t, while the other Thais are indifferent.

(g) Although Abhisit warned Hun Sen not to become a pawn in Thaksin’s game, the Cambodian premier is nobody’s tool.

(h) Thaksin is not Cambodia’s tool. Hun Sen really wants to employ Thaksin’s experience to help in Cambodia’s economic affairs.

(i) Hun Sen wants to tackle the origin of the Thai-Cambodian spat, which started when Thaksin was ousted as Prime Minister in a coup on Sept 19, 2006.

(j) Thailand has obstructed Cambodia’s bid (to declare Preah Vihear, a border temple which both Cambodia and Thailand claim is within their territory) and has the nerve to say that it has nothing to do with Cambodia.

(k) Hun Sen received two-thirds of the vote in the Cambodian parliament, whereas Abhisit “stole somebody’s chair” to seat himself in the prime minister’s chair. And Cambodia cannot respect someone who claims other people’s property as his own.

(l) Abhisit is so buried in problems himself that he may not survive politically. He has problems with all the neighbouring countries (Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Myanmar); in southern Thailand; and Yellow Shirts, Red Shirts, Blue Shirts, White Shirts and Pheu Thai (the pro-Thaksin opposition party).

(m) Thaksin is Hun Sen’s friend and a friend “cannot feed friends to the tiger”.

(n) In the past, Khieu Samphan and Noun Chea (of the Khmer Rouge) were allowed to live (given refuge) even though Thailand had signed a pact not to support the Khmer Rouge.

(o) All the above.

The answer is (o), all of the above. That’s what Hun Sen told journalists on Nov 8 at Phnom Penh airport, after returning from the Mekong-Japan summit in Tokyo.

At an official dinner there, Abhisit said he did not speak to his Cambodian counterpart because they were seated at quite a distance and there was a vase between them obstructing his view.

What did the Thai media think of Hun Sen’s explanation of the diplomatic spat which has brought relations between the two countries to an all-time low, since the 2003 burning of the Thai embassy and other Thai properties in Phnom Penh after a Thai actress was falsely reported as saying the Angkor Wat temple complex belonged to Thailand?

According to Ploenpote Atthakor, a Bangkok Post journalist, “Hun Sen, playing the Thaksin card, can take a break from questions he has been facing at home about border issues with Vietnam.”

“The arrival of Thaksin (in Phnom Penh last Tuesday) also deflects the attention of Cambodians from the ongoing trial of former Khmer Rouge cadres. After all, Hun Sen knows fully well that without a strong political opponent, his PM’s seat is more secure compared to the shaky one Abhisit is sitting on,” she opined yesterday.

In an editorial on Thursday, the Bangkok Post said there was method in Hun Sen’s madness (to some Thais, Hun Sen is mad to provoke Thailand by appointing a Thai fugitive as his economic adviser).

“As a shrewd politician and the longest-serving prime minister in this region, Hun Sen must have carefully calculated the positive and negative consequences of this game of brinkmanship he is playing with Thailand,” the newspaper editorialised.

(Published in The Star on November 14, 2009)

Roxanne walks on the wild side

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

NO. 10, Roxanne Fonseka, Malaysia, the announcer said, and the 20-year-old Malaysian strutted his stuff during a rehearsal of the Miss International Queen 2009 at the Thai beach resort of Pattaya.

Roxanne (not his real name) was among 21 contestants, from countries like Brazil, China, Japan, Philippines, Nepal and the United States, competing to be the world’s most beautiful transvestite/transsexual at Tiffany’s Show in Pattaya (reputedly the world’s largest transsexual cabaret) on Halloween night.

The Penangite was in Pattaya because he wanted to end his cross-dressing fetish with a bang. “Next year I plan to end my life as a drag queen – which means a guy who turns into a woman for just one night,” he revealed.

Pulling down his blouse to expose his scrawny arms, he said, “I plan to go to a fitness centre, build up my body so that I have a male body and then work as a flight attendant.”

Life as an occasional drag queen can be a drag, Roxanne said.

“Malaysia – unlike Thailand and the Philippines – is not open to transvestites, and they tend to look down on pondan and Ah Kua (Malaysian slang for transvestite).

“It will be very difficult for me to make a living,” said the only son of a rich businessman. “I know, as (at the age of 17) I’ve opened a gay massage centre (in Penang).”

“Next year when you become a ‘guy’, will you be a heterosexual or homosexual guy?” I asked.

“I will be a bisexual guy,” revealed the Malaysian, who lives in Thailand as he’s learning Thai from his sleeping dictionary (a 29-year-old closeted gay Thai man who wants to be a politician).

When he was 12 years old, Roxanne, who was studying in a boys’ school in Penang, found out that he was attracted to his handsome classmate.

“And I was thinking, ‘Do I like him, or do I want to be like him as he was handsome’.

“After much thought, I found out that I liked him,” he recalled, adding “I’ve had girlfriends too.”

When he registered for the Miss International Queen pageant, the 182-cm “twink” (which Urban Dictionary defines as an attractive, boyish-looking, young gay man) thought he had a shot at the title, as he was “tall” and “a natural beauty.”

“But when I saw the competition I found out that I couldn’t compete with them, as almost all had plastic surgery, hormone injection and undergone a sex change operation, whereas I am just a guy with make-up,” he explained.

Roxanne has not gone for plastic surgery or hormone injections, as in the future he does not want to face the ugly consequences of transforming into a woman.

“Most of my sisters (slang for transvestite) who are in their 40s regret changing their sex. Yes, you look sexy and beautiful when you are in your 20s, but not in your 40s,” he explained.

To prepare for Miss International Queen, Roxanne competed in three katoey (Thai for transvestites) beauty pageants in Bangkok.

He budgeted RM10,000 (for make-up artist, hair dresser, national costume, evening gown, shoes, accessories and RM1,000 for registration fee) for the pageant.

Where did he get the money?

“I lied. I got it from my parents who told me not to cross-dress in Thailand,” he revealed with an apologetic smile.

On the eve of the pageant I asked Roxanne, who had been participating in Miss International Queen activities for five days, how the experience was.

“It is quite pressured as everybody is beautiful. At first I was enjoying it, but then some contestants tried to sabotage me,” he said.

For example, Roxanne was told that his RM800 evening gown was ugly and its colour (yellow) was not suitable.

“Everybody who enters a pageant knows that yellow and red are the most attractive colour on stage.

“Miss Venezuela wore yellow and she won Miss Universe 2008, and she has the same skin colour as me,” griped Roxanne.

“Don’t you think that jealousy is the reason for such statements?”

On Halloween night, he failed to make the cut for the top 10 finalists. Haruna Ai, a 37-year-old Japanese television host who competed in Miss International Queen 2007, was crowned the world’s most beautiful katoey.

“Perhaps I should compete again next year. And I’m planning to bring a TV crew just like Haruna,” emailed Roxanne.

(Published in The Star on November 7, 2009)

Hun Sen’s jibes raise speculation

Thai Takes

By PHILIP GOLINGAI

IN an editorial cartoon, The Nation’s cartoonist Stephff answers a question that has recently been bugging Thais – What is really wrong with Hun Sen?

Last week, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen offered political asylum to Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai prime minister ousted in a bloodless coup in 2006.

Thaksin has been in self-exile after fleeing Thailand in 2008 to avoid a two-year jail term on corruption charges.

Two days later, after arriving in Thailand to attend the Asean Summit, Hun Sen embarrassed Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva again when he announced that he would offer Thaksin a job as economic adviser.

On Thursday, Stephff’s cartoon showed an “alien” resembling the square face of Thaksin bursting out of the guts of a grimacing Hun Sen, with the “alien” holding a foot-clapper (the symbol of red-shirted pro-Thaksin supporters) confronting a terrified Abhisit.

The why as to Hun Sen’s recent Thaksin lovefest, according to the French cartoonist, is: “The horrible truth: Hun Sen was only a host body ….”

Stephff’s take is ha-ha funny. But it is a bit too far-fetched. I prefer The Nation’s military expert Avudh Panananda’s take. “It was a hoax perpetrated by Thaksin and Hun Sen to overshadow Abhisit’s Asean Summit,” he said.

Avudh does not believe the Cambodian’s declaration that the former telecommunications tycoon is his “eternal friend”.

“It is a myth that Thaksin-Hun Sen ties go back decades. The two were never close before Thaksin came to power in 2001,” he said.

In an article in The Nation, the writer gives a historical perspective of the two leaders' relationship.

“At the peak of Thaksin’s popularity in 2003, Hun Sen wanted to lessen Thai domination in the wireless communications business.

“He pushed for the granting of a licence to a Japanese operator,” Avudh writes.

“This led to a failed coup in Phnom Penh. Cambodian leaders, particularly those in the Hun Sen camp, had lingering (suspicions) about the involvement of certain Thai figures.

“Soon after, Hun Sen fanned the Cambodian backlash on a Thai television actress. This in turn led to riots and the torching of the Thai Embassy,” Avudh says.

“To this day Thaksin and Hun Sen still cast suspicions on one another, although they have been boasting about their buddy-buddy ties for mutual gains.”

After the Asean Summit that ended on Oct 25, Thaksin again stole the limelight from Abhisit, who badly wanted to use the meeting of Asean leaders to atone for the abandoned summit in Pattaya in April.

On Tuesday, Surapong Towijakchaikul, an MP from the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party claimed that during the summit, Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah stayed in Thaksin’s seaside home instead of the official accommodation provided by Abhisit’s government.

Surapong, however, did not provide any evidence to back up his claim, which was intended to show that the Sultan was close to Thaksin and not to Abhisit.

Was the claim another hoax to embarrass Abhisit? Probably. The following day Kongkiart Natthavong, the head of security in charge of protection for the Sultan of Brunei, denied that the Sultan stayed in Thaksin’s home.

“It was my duty to accompany him and I had to go everywhere with him. I must know if he goes to other places,” Kongkiart said.

Then came the Abhisit government’s revenge.

On Wednesday, the government announced it would strip Thaksin of his royal awards (the Most Exalted Order of the White Elephant and the Most Illustrious Order of King Chula Chonklao) and police rank (lieutenant-colonel, from his days in the police force from 1973 to 1987).

Though the Abhisit government is denying it, many political pundits see the government’s latest campaign against its arch-rival as tit for tat for Thaksin’s recent publicity stunts.

The billionaire politician’s response was classic Thaksin.

He Twittered: “This can be expected of this government ... If they could use the law to kill me, they would have done so a long time ago.”

“Theoretically, the law-enforcement side is created to maintain peace and justice. Law must be enforced fairly and equally, but the government opts to exercise the law to serve a political goal,” he wrote.

It would not take long for the “alien” resembling the square face of Thaksin to strike back.

(Published in The Star on October 31, 2009)

Between friendship and politics

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

WHAT can an eternal friend, who happens to be the Cambodian Prime Minister, do to help his self-exiled billionaire politician buddy?

If you were Hun Sen, you would offer to build a beautiful home in Cambodia for Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai prime minister who was ousted in a 2006 coup.

In Phnom Penh on Wednesday the Cambodian premier told Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the puu yai (Thai for “senior elder”) of the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party, that he was prepared to host Thaksin, who fled Thailand in August 2008 to avoid a two-year jail term on charges of corruption and abuse of power.

“I consider Thaksin as my eternal friend. Cambodia will welcome him to stay here for anytime.

“I make the house available for him at any time if he decides to visit Cambodia,” Hun Sen told reporters after meeting Chavalit.

“Though I’m not Thai, I’m hurt by what has happened to him. My wife even cried on knowing about it and has the idea of building a home for Thaksin to come and stay honourably,” he said.

“We have been great friends since Thaksin was a businessman, and the relationship has remained the same since he entered politics,” Hun Sen said.

In Thaksinlive, Thaksin tweeted in Thai: “I have to express deepest thanks to Prime Minister Hun Sen for saying in public that I am his friend.

“I also would like to thank him for arranging me a house.”

However, Thaksin — who is currently staying in Dubai — did not say whether he would accept Hun Sen’s offer.

In an article yesterday, The Nation reported that relations between Hun Sen and Thaksin go back nearly two decades when the Thai was “an up-and-coming businessman trying to align himself with important people.”

“It started with lucrative business contracts in the area of telecommunications, with the Vietnamese-installed government in Phnom Penh. At the time Hun Sen was top man on the hill,” wrote Don Pathan, The Nation’s foreign editor.

Hun Sen’s invitation to Thaksin came two days before the Asean summit, where Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will be hosting him and other Asian leaders in Hua Hin, Thailand.

A Bangkok Post editorial cartoon yesterday succinctly illustrated the consequence of the undiplomatic invitation: Hun Sen’s right arm warmly welcoming a delighted Thaksin, while his left hand was rudely slapping a flustered Abhisit.

On Thursday, Veera Prateepchaikul, a former Bangkok Post editor, wrote:

“A shrewd politician, the Cambodian prime minister should have realised that his receiving of Chavalit at this juncture and his remark about Thaksin would embarrass if not offend the Thai government, Prime Minister Abhisit in particular.”

“But he didn’t seem bothered and appeared willingly to play into Chavalit’s political game,” he opined in the Bangkok Post.

Ever the statesman, Abhisit on Thursday told journalists he had no hard feelings towards Hun Sen.

The Thai premier said he believed his Cambodian counterpart was mature enough to differentiate matters and had no intention of interfering in Thailand’s internal affairs. He added that he would not raise the matter with Hun Sen during the Asean summit.

However, Abhisit said his government would seek Thaksin’s extradition if he ever set foot in Cambodia.

“Once Thaksin enters Cambodia the extradition process will begin. If Cambodia fails to comply with (the) treaty, that would be another story,” he said.

Don’t bet on that happening.

“If Thaksin decides to come and stay closer to home, he can rest assured it won’t be a walk into a trap,” The Nation opined yesterday.

“First and foremost, the one who invites him and who would be his host is the most powerful man in Cambodia, thus the chance of Thaksin being stabbed in the back and extradited is virtually zero.”

The article continued: “Combine the apparently heartfelt message with Hun Sen’s stormy relations with the current Bangkok leaders, an extradition request should either bounce back to the senders or head straight to diplomatic oblivion.”

Yesterday, Hun Sen’s invitation took a twist.

Cambodian government spokesman Khieu Kanharith claimed that it was untrue the Cambodian premier would allow Thaksin to have a permanent home in Cambodia. He added that Hun Sen was misquoted by the media.

Perhaps Thaksin can shed some light on this latest twist in his next tweet.

(Published in The Star on October 24, 2009)

Chavalit soldiers on

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

THE military has the famous saying that “old soldiers never die, they just fade away”. But in Thailand, where generals can become the prime minister, it may be more accurate to say “old soldiers never die nor do they just fade away”.

One recent example is General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, a 77-year-old soldier/politician who was Thailand’s prime minister from 1996-1997.

On Oct 2, Chavalit made a political comeback of sorts when he was named Pheu Thai Party’s puu yai (Thai for “senior elder”). With Chavalit’s appointment as puu yai of Pheu Thai (the reincarnation of People Power Party, in turn the reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai), Thaksin Shinawatra hopes the opposition party — “headless” from its formation in December 2008, it had only been led by a stop-gap leader — will now be able to take on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s shaky coalition government.

A Wikipedia background check showed Chavalit to be a former army chief and politician who, since 1988, had been in and out of various Thai Cabinets (under different prime ministers during Thailand’s era of weak coalition governments).

He was deputy prime minister/defence minister from 1988 to 1991, interior minister from 1992 to 1994, and deputy prime minister/defence minister from 1995 to 1996.

As the leader of New Aspiration Party (which has since merged with Thai Rak Thai in 2001) he became prime minister on Nov 25, 1996. He resigned on Nov 6, 1997, in the face of pressure due to the Asian financial crisis.

His most recent foray into the Cabinet was on Sept 24, 2008, during the administration of Somchai Wongsawat, the prime minister in the People Power Party-led coalition government.

However, Chavalit resigned as deputy prime minister on Oct 7 last year to accept responsibility for the bloody government crackdown on the anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirt protesters who besieged parliament.

“I have decided to resume my political activities because I can no longer allow the unprecedented social divisions to persist,” he said on Oct 2 after submitting his Pheu Thai party membership application.

What do the political pundits think of Chavalit’s return?

“Because it lacks baramee (bangkokpundit.blogspot.com translates the Thai word as ‘charisma’ and also ‘a person with clout, influence and respect’), Pheu Thai has brought in Chavalit as party adviser,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of Chulalongkorn University’s Institute of Security and International Studies, wrote in the Bangkok Post yesterday.

“Chavalit was prime minister during the economic maelstrom in 1996-97 and was seen as an inept, serial fumbler. His only credit perhaps was a willingness to resign from the army to enter the political arena in the late 1980s, thereby playing by the rules.”

Thitinan eplained that Pheu Thai did not have much of a talent pool to dip into after its “main talents” were banned from politics following the dissolution of its two predecessors — People Power Party and Thai Rak Thai.

“Pheu Thai’s appointment of Chavalit is intended to increase baramee for the party and in behind-the-scenes manoeuvres,” he added.

According to Suthichai Yoon, The Nation’s group editor-in-chief, “Big Jiew’s (Chavalit’s nickname) record isn’t so convincing.”

“But Thaksin is apparently running out of candidates to help him lead his Pheu Thai Party,” he wrote on Thursday.

“Even the Democrats seem to have adopted a wait-and-see attitude instead of giving their usual cynical take against the old soldier who refuses to fade away.”

“The hype about Chavalit coming out of retirement is much overrated,” wrote Avudh Panananda, The Nation’s military expert, on Tuesday.

“The presence or absence of Chavalit is irrelevant. What matters is how fugitive ex-premier Thaksin intends to work his political magic by propping up Chavalit.

“Judging by the numbers of political pilgrimages made from Bangkok to Dubai, Thaksin is the undisputed playmaker of the Pheu Thai Party. Even Chavalit made the trip to meet the man in Dubai before teaming up with the main opposition party last week.”

Thepthai Senpong, Abhisit’s spokesman and a Democrat MP, only had harsh words for the Grand Old Soldier.

“Chavalit is like an old and decrepit car, fit to serve only the Pheu Thai Party, even after being overhauled,” Thepthai was reported as saying.

It will be seen whether the self-exiled Thaksin’s political fortunes will change now that his party has a baramee.

(Published in The Star on October 10, 2009)

Is this Bangkok, or mere cliches?

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

GUESS which city fits this description: “... A teeth-rattling cab ride through the smog-choked, sweltering squalor of metro (name of city), dodging rickshaws and limbless sidewalk cripples begging for change.”

If I was to guess, I would guess ... ermm, I’m thinking of the capital of an Asean country but I better not say it out loud as this nation is literally at war with my host country, Thailand. Another guess would have been any city in South Asia.

Surprise, surprise I’m wrong. It refers to Bangkok where I’ve been living for the past three years. And “a teeth-rattling cab ride through the smog-choked, sweltering squalor of metro Bangkok, dodging rickshaws and limbless sidewalk cripples begging for change” is not something I’ve experienced in the Thai capital.

But that’s how Mark Ebner characterised Bangkok in his article “The Last Days of David Carradine” in the September issue of Maxim, a men’s magazine.

Ebner, who has been covering crime and Hollywood for 20 years, was in the Thai capital to “follow in Carradine’s steps and try to reconstruct his final days” that ended up with the 72-year-old Kungfu icon dead in a Bangkok hotel room on June 4.

The article, which Patrick Winn described in GlobalPost.com (a news website) as “riveting, perfectly paced and dripping with detail”, was loaded with fantasy, however.

“Journalists on assignment in Bangkok often turn out amazing prose. It’s a glittering, messy and alluring city that tends to inspire,” wrote Winn, an American journalist living in Bangkok.

“Trouble is, out-of-town reporters have a tendency to rely too heavily on the fantasy Bangkok they imagine on the plane ride over. The city offers a feast of clichés: lurid sex, prowling transsexuals, low-lives who’ll kill for cheap.”

(Ebner’s plane ride – in his own words - was “23 hours in a cramped China Airlines 747”.)

What does the farang (Westerners) community think of Ebner’s portrayal of the Thai capital?

“It’s not false, but for those of us that have visited BKK (Bangkok’s airport code), it’s just not the real picture,” commented “geriatrickid” recently in ThaiVisa.com’s forum which is popular with farangs.

“Yes there may be limbless sidewalk cripple or two, yes there is choking smog but that’s not really BKK is it?

“I dislike BKK and avoid it as much as possible, but even I can see that the use of the negative imagery is intended to lay the foundation to make (an unflattering impression of Bangkok).”

Another commentator “DP25” sarcastically wrote: “After reading the full article on Maxim it seems quite obvious that the author of the piece has never even been to Thailand.”

However, a forum member called “Danish pastry member” agreed with Ebner’s depiction, saying: “If it was up to me, the picture I’d paint of Bangkok would be a lot less poetic and a lot more nitty gritty.”

“Last time I was in Bangkok, about two years ago, I almost died waiting for a bus. I jest not. Each minute standing at the bus stop was sheer torture, as the fumes from vehicles was horrible.

“How anyone can stand to try to exist in such a hellhole is mind boggling.”

In his article, Ebner pigeon-holed Bangkok as a city where ladyboy (in the writer’s words: “a transvestite prostitute who sounds like a girly-man but would probably kick your ass for saying so”) was a killer or accidental murderer.

And he quoted David Winters (a 70-year-old British who produced several movies with Carradine) as speculating that a ladyboy was involved in the Hollywood actor’s death.

To strengthen his point, Ebner cited Gary Stretch, a British actor, as saying: “A big thing here in Bangkok is that, especially the lady-boys, they’ll go back to your hotel, put something in your drink and then rob you.”

To probe the ladyboy killer angle, Ebner cruised Bangkok’s Nana red light district where he met “a striking-looking child bride” who for 10,000 baht (about RM1,000) “will come back to my hotel, tie me up, choke me and stay the night”.

Instead of cruising Nana, if the writer visited Wat Arun (Temple of the Dawn) or Thonglor (where the trendy hang out) he would have seen a less clichéd Bangkok.

(Published in The Star on October 3, 2009)

Newin's star rises anew

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

ON MONDAY, political pundits in Thailand closely followed the live telecast of the Supreme Court delivering its verdict on the so-called 1.44 billion baht (RM149mil) rubber-sapling corruption case.

A guilty verdict in the case – which involved poor quality saplings, delayed delivery, bid rigging and fraud in a project launched in 2003 during the Thaksin Shinawatra administration – could rock Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s wobbly nine-month-old coalition government.

And as predicted by a defendant (who said he had already received a “signal”), the Supreme Court acquitted the 44 defendants of corruption and malfeasance charges arising from the rubber sapling procurement deal.

Interestingly, even though the other defendants included notable personalities such as former deputy prime minister Somkid Jatusripitak, former commerce minister Adisai Bodharamik and former deputy finance minister Varathep Ratanakorn, all eyes were on Newin Chidchob.

Newin, deputy agriculture and cooperatives minister at the time of the alleged offences, was so cocksure the court would find him innocent that his political party had planned a victory banquet ahead of the verdict.

The 51-year-old political playmaker was a former Thaksin loyalist. He and about two dozen People’s Power Party (PPP) MPs left and formed Bhum Jai Thai after the court dissolved PPP, the then ruling party. This betrayal enabled Abhisit, the Democrat Party leader, to cobble together a seven-party coalition government in December last year.

The not guilty verdict is seen by the pro-Thaksin Red Shirt supporters as part of the deal to secure Newin’s betrayal. Another alleged deal was Bhum Jai Thai taking control of the influential and lucrative ministries of Transport, Interior (which oversees the Royal Thai Police) and Commerce in Abhisit’s government.

The media reported that Newin was “choked with emotion” following the verdict. He also pledged to “protect the monarchy until my last breath”.

Tulsathit Taptim, The Nation editor, cheekily described Newin’s emotional state as sounding “like a thankful man who didn’t quite know whom to thank”.

“The Democrats must be the ones who don’t quite know how to feel. A guilty verdict would have put Newin in jail, but here’s a man you would rather have on your side when playing politics,” Tulsathit wrote on Tuesday.

“A wounded Newin is highly dangerous and unpredictable. At a normal time, Abhisit would have been happy to have an angry Newin manipulate things from behind bars, but now the Democrat leader should be content with a relieved Newin trying to fulfil his ambitions (to make Bhum Jai Thai a political force to be reckoned in the next election).”

Now that the rubber sapling case is over and done with, political pundits are predicting that Newin’s political career will be on the rise.

“The most significant acquittal is that of Newin, the de facto boss of Bhum Jai Thai. With the noose loosened, Newin is considered the most powerful broker in Thai politics today,” Suranand Vejjajiva, Newin’s former Cabinet colleague in the Thaksin government, wrote in the Bangkok Post yesterday.

“Although Suthep Thaugsuban, secretary-general of the ruling Democrats as well as deputy PM and government ‘manager’, remains in charge of the present political coordination game, he will have to make way somewhat for Newin.”

Suranand, now a political analyst, continued: “Suthep has even grudgingly admitted that without Newin, the Democrats would not have been able to form the government and Abhisit would not have become prime minister. ‘Without him (Newin), we cannot stay (in power),’ Suthep once remarked.”

But there is still one more rope around Newin’s neck. He – together with 110 Thai Rak Thai (the pro-Thaksin party which was disbanded after the 2006 coup) politicians, including Thaksin and Suranand – have been banned from politics for five years.

But, sooner or later the man whose father (Chai Chidchob, the Thai parliament Speaker) named him for the Burmese leader Ne Win will overcome that hurdle, too.

Newin, who has survived several political pitfalls, is known as the cat with nine lives.

Two days after the Sept 19, 2006, coup which ousted Thaksin, the military detained Newin for 10 days. On the last day of detention, he claimed he was forced to strip down to his underwear.

That was then. Now Newin is seen as the man who could be Prime Minister.

(Published in The Star on September 26, 2009)

The naked truth

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

IT IS a sight not many in Thailand will want to see. Thai Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban has promised to strip naked if there is a coup today, the third anniversary of the military overthrow of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

“I am in charge of security affairs and I have heard of nobody planning a coup. If there is a coup, I will walk naked (as I) step down. I believe no groups (in the military) want to stage a coup now,” Suthep told journalists recently.

No coup, says the confident deputy prime minister. And yet his boss, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has invoked the Internal Security Act (ISA) to bar protesters from Bangkok’s historic Dusit district (where Dusit Palace, the Prime Minister’s office and parliament are located) from yesterday until Tuesday.

Abhisit justified the use of the ISA to give the military a key role in maintaining law and order, saying a “third hand” may turn today’s street rally by thousands of pro-Thaksin Red Shirts protesters to mark the anniversary of the 2006 coup into a blood bath.

Pitch Pongsawat, who teaches political science in Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, laughs when told about Suthep’s pledge.

“There’ll be no coup for sure this Saturday,” he says. “What has happened now is a self coup.”

“In a sense, when (the Abhisit government) invoked the ISA, the government is preventing people from exercising their right (to protest), which is backed by the constitution. And (Abhisit) has allowed the military to intervene in domestic politics.”

The military has no business getting involved in domestic politics, he added.

The naked truth about the invocation of the ISA, according to Pitch, is that it is a preemptive strike.

In announcing that it wants to prevent a recurrence of the April riots (allegedly) by the Red Shirts, the government is using psychological warfare to discourage Red Shirt supporters (mostly from outside of Bangkok) from converging onto the Thai capital to protest against the Abhisit-led government, the academic explains.

Yesterday morning, the military and police installed concrete slabs and iron barricades around Government House (the Prime Minister’s office) in Bangkok in preparation for today’s protest which the Red Shirts leaders promised would be peaceful and “without weapons”.

Yesterday was the second time the ISA was invoked against the Red Shirts. The first was on Aug 29. But the pro-Thaksin movement – in a cat and mouse game with the government – cancelled its street rally and embarassed Abhisit (for jumping the gun).

“Now it is going to be the norm for the government – as long as they have the support of the Bangkok middle class – to invoke the ISA whenever the Red Shirts plan a street protest,” notes Pitch.

The academic questions whether the government will dare invoke the ISA if the Yellow Shirts (an anti-Thaksin movement) plan a street protest.

“Probably not. If they announce they’d use this law on the Yellow Shirts, more (Bangkokians) will pour into the streets,” he says.

Asked why Thailand is still mired in political turmoil three years after the “happy coup”, Pitch says there are two theories.

“One theory says it is because Thaksin has not stopped intervening in the post-coup process,” he explains. “The second says that the coup cannot change the deep structural problem in Thailand – poverty.

“With income disparity in this country, there is a possibility that certain capitalists can capture the heart of the (poor) people and rework (the current elite) alignment.”

Does Pitch wants to see Suthep naked? After a long pause, the academic says figuratively: “I’ve seen Suthep naked and I’m sick of it.”

“He’s already naked. The military has (launched several ‘silent’ coups in the last three years). For example, the government declared a state of emergency to allow the military to crack down on the Red Shirts protest during Songkran (Thai new year in April this year).”

Will there be a coup today?

Surely, the threat of Suthep stripping naked is enough to convince army chief General Anupong Paochinda not to launch a coup.

“Being an international pariah is one thing,” comments Bangkok Pundit, in his Thai political blog bangkokpundit.blogspot.com on Wednesday, “but having to see Suthep in all his glory will just be too much ....”

(Published in The Star on September 19, 2009)

Payback time for Abhisit

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

NOW that Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has shifted the national police chief to a desk job, Thais are speculating what the Defence Minister, who is the top cop’s big brother, will do next.

The talk is Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan is disgruntled with Abhisit’s decision to cold storage General Patcharawat Wongsuwan after the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) ruled on Monday that Patcharawat violated criminal law during a police crackdown on the anti-Thaksin Shinawatra People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which besieged parliament in October 2008.

On Thursday, quoting a close aide to Prawit, the Bangkok Post reported that the Defence Minister was “shaken by the transfer order and took the matter personally”.

Big brother Prawit’s unhappiness with Abhisit “mistreatment” of his younger brother has raised question marks over the stability of the prime minister’s coalition government.

However, Prawit denied on Thursday he would quit his defence portfolio, saying the government and armed forces were still on good terms.

Like a lakorn (Thai for soap opera) plot, the saga of the Thai police chief has countless twists.

The anti-graft ruling was the latest pretext Abhisit needed to get rid of Patcharawat.

In early August, Abhisit ordered the police chief to go on holiday in China so he could appoint an acting police chief.

However, Patcharawat turned up unexpectedly on Aug 8 and reclaimed his post.

Subsequently, the prime minister re-assigned Patcharawat to Thailand’s restive southern provinces on a mission and Wichien was reappointed acting police chief.

Despite Abhisit’s efforts to banish him, on Aug 20, Patcharawat, who is 60 and due for compulsory retirement at the end of this month, still managed to be part of the 11-man police commission to decide on his replacement.

On that Thursday, the prime minister started the day confidently, assuming that Prateep Tunprasert, his choice for national police chief, would be endorsed by the commission which he chaired.

It turned out that the commission rejected his choice by a five to four vote (with two abstentions, including Abhisit’s), which the Thai media described as a “big slap in the face” for the prime minister.

“Political pundits are in agreement that Abhisit’s failure to get his nominee for the police chief position endorsed by the Royal Thai Police board was a slap in the face,” wrote Atiya Achakilwisut of the Bangkok Post.

“What the analysts have not yet decided, however, is how much should the humiliation hurt. Some said it should hurt like a House dissolution. Others believe it to be more of a personal pain, at the level of a PM’s resignation.

“And there are some others, like members of the PM’s own Democrat party, who say the jab was unexpected but it would cause no tangible damage to the PM’s handsome face.”

Then came Abhisit’s payback.

“It is believed the government was keen to push Patcharawat out of the picture so Abhisit could have his own way in nominating (his man) to the top post,” wrote Nattaya Chetchotiros in the Bangkok Post on Thursday.

“Patcharawat was among the Police Commission members who rejected the prime minister’s nomination of Prateep. His vote was interpreted as scoffing at Abhisit’s authority, whose leadership was seen weakened by the episode of the selection of the new police chief.”

On Wednesday, hours after Abhisit transferred him to an inactive post at the prime minister’s office, Patcharawat handed his resignation to the prime minister.

The police chief’s resignation and the NACC decision to implicate him in the Oct 7, 2008, crackdown come days before the third anniversary of the Sept 19 2006 coup to overthrow Thaksin.

“It has been widely interpreted that the ruling against Patcharawat will prompt the police to go further into ‘neutral gear’ especially when it comes to their response to protests and riots because they could go to jail for performing their duty,” noted Nattaya of the Bangkok Post.

The pro-Thaksin Red Shirt supporters plan a massive street protest on Sept 19 to mark the third anniversary of the coup.

On that day, it will be seen whether the police will be “committed” to keep law and order. Or, will the men in uniform shift into neutral gear?

(Published in The Star on September 12, 2009)

Discussing the unspoken

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

ON TUESDAY, in a packed conference hall at Bangkok’s prestigious Chulalongkorn University, a panel of academics spoke about Thailand’s unspoken.

“We’re going to discuss what is unspoken in Thailand – the sensitive topic of the role of Thai military in politics,” said Chulalongkorn University’s Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) director Thitinan Pongsudhirak in his opening remarks before the start of a public forum entitled The Military in Thai Politics: What’s Next?

Since the 1932 coup which ended absolute monarchy, the military has been a major player in Thai politics, noted Paul Chambers, a senior research fellow in political science at Germany’s University of Heidelberg.

“There have, however, been but three brief respites from dominant military clout: 1944-47; 1973-76; 1992-95,” wrote the academic, who presented a 101-page paper, U-Turn to the Past? The Resurgence of the Military in Contemporary Thai Politics.

According to Chambers, in 1992, following the bloody Black May massacre, the military was at its lowest point in terms of support from the public and palace.

“Fallout from Black May 1992 represented a massive discrediting of the armed forces in Thai society,” he said, referring to street protests in Bangkok from May 17 to 20, 1992, against the government of General Suchinda Kraprayoon that climaxed in a bloody military crackdown.

Then came Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) landslide victory in the 2001 general election.

Prime Minister Thaksin cemented his political grip in the 2005 general election when TRT became the only party to win an outright majority in Thai political history.

“Given the implementation of the 1997 constitution and the 2001-06 dominance of civilian strongman Thaksin across Thailand, civilian control of the military perhaps grew to its highest levels in Thai history,” noted Chambers.

On Sept 19, 2006, the military reversed its loss of political power.

Army Commander Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin launched a coup against Thaksin and established a military government (the first in 15 years).

“The takeover immediately enhanced the role of soldiers in domestic politics,” noted Chambers.

However, the result of the December 2007 general election put a spanner in the military’s plan to dominate politics.

The People’s Power Party (PPP) was voted into power.

“The post-2006 coup military leadership was clearly unhappy with the electoral results – which brought a pro-Thaksin government back to office,” observed the academic.

But the military could not stage a conventional coup d’etat.

“The coup and military government that followed it had been mostly unpopular both domestically and internationally. At the same time, damaging events which occurred under the (military) regime (which failed to solve any political or economic problems) caused the armed forces to be seen in an increasingly negative light,” explained Chambers.

Instead of an outright takeover, the military took a back seat to those opposed to Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej’s government and indirectly influenced the dismantling of PPP.

According to Chambers, this was done in three moves.

First, the armed forces put little effort into protecting Samak’s government (and later that of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat) from unruly yellow-shirted crowds which occupied the prime minister’s office, besieged parliament and seized two international airports in Bangkok.

Second, the military at least twice called on Prime Minister Somchai to resign. (In an episode dubbed the TV Coup, army chief Gen Anupong Paochinda – flanked by the navy chief, the air force chief and the police chief – appeared on television to demand Somchai’s resignation.)

Third, in mid-December 2008, the military indirectly engineered the formation of the anti-Thaksin coalition government of Democrat Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Currently, according to Chambers, the military has found a perfect niche.

“Counselled by (General) Prem (Tinsulanonda, who is a chief adviser to the Thai King and a former prime minister and army commander), working behind the scenes with the generally compliant Abhisit government, and strengthened by the (military-drafted) 2007 constitution, the military has made a U-turn back to 1991 to become Thailand’s crucial clandestine political player,” he wrote.

But the armed forces have an even better deal than the soldiers of 30 years ago.

“They have learned from experience that direct governance will only create negative perceptions of them from society,” the academic explained.

“Instead, indirect domination of civilian governments allows them to augment their autonomy from civilian authority.”

(Published in The Star on September 5, 2009)

Embattled Abhisit pulls out the plug

THAI TAKES
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

IF YOU are planning to visit Bangkok’s historic Dusit district (where Dusit Palace, the Prime Minister’s office and parliament are located) tomorrow, think again.

But if you want to experience a Thai-style protest then make your way there. It’s the Thai capital’s epicenter for political turmoil.

The pro-Thaksin Shinawatra Red Shirts are organising a massive street rally there with a double message: Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, don’t stall the petition for a royal pardon for Thaksin, and please dissolve parliament.

Sunday’s rally comes two weeks after more than 20,000 Red Shirts marched to the royal offices in Bangkok’s Grand Palace to submit their petition (signed by at least 3.5 million Thais).

They were seeking a royal pardon for Thaksin, who was convicted last year over the sale of government-owned land in Bangkok to his then wife Potjaman (whom he divorced last year).

That much hyped street march, which Thai authorities feared could turn into a bloody mayhem, was peaceful albeit theatrical – the petition was packed in 383 boxes wrapped in red cloth.

But for tomorrow’s rally, Abhisit is not taking any chances.

On Tuesday, the Thai Cabinet invoked the Internal Security Act (ISA) that suspends civil rights and puts the military in charge of law and order. The law, effective from today to Tuesday, is limited to the Dusit district.

“Although the protesters have said the rally will not be violent (like during Songkran in April this year, which saw Thailand’s worst street violence in 17 years), we cannot remain complacent,” Abhisit said in explaining his government’s decision to invoke the ISA.

“A third party might step in to take advantage of the situation. Accidents can happen.”

On Wednesday, Veera Musikhapong, a Red Shirt leader, told a press conference that the anti-government demonstration would not be protracted despite government fears.

“The rally will be peaceful, without weapons ... and after submitting a letter calling for the dissolution of the House and a general election the Red Shirts will disperse peacefully,” he said.

Against such words, Abhisit’s measure looks like an overkill.

The Bangkok Post described it as a “security lockdown” where 3,500 soldiers and 1,950 policemen would be deployed to ensure no public gatherings at Dusit Palace, Government House (the Prime Minister’s office) and Parliament.

At Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silpa-archa expressed concern that enforcement of the law would affect tourism.

And the prime minister’s decision to invoke the ISA raises the question whether Abhisit is afraid of shadows.

“Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is facing fear,” Suranand Vejjajiva, who is a former minister in Thaksin’s Cabinet and also Abhisit’s cousin, wrote in the Bangkok Post yesterday.

“Whether he will become a victim of his own nightmare, or controller of fear and able to utilise it as a political tool, remains to be seen.

“But suspicions arose when he decided to invoke the Internal Security Act through a Cabinet resolution earlier in the week, and the government’s actions so far during the past seven months have been one of reacting to whatever ousted ex-PM Thaksin is doing.”

Suranand, who is a political analyst, continued: “The question everybody’s asking now is: Is there a real threat to stability? Are the anti-government protesters going to resort to violence, which they are being accused of already?

“The general feeling is that the rally’s objective is to further the psychological warfare the Red Shirts and Thaksin are waging. It is designed to crank up pressure on a weakened prime minister and his coalition government.”

To ratchet up the Red Shirts’ill-feeling towards the Abhisit-led government, an allegedly doctored audio clip of Abhisit’s voice has surfaced. The voice – which sounded like Abhisit’s – ordered officials to use force against the Red Shirts during the Songkran riots in April.

“I have listened to the clip, and it is definitely an edited clip because I had never given out such order,” Abhisit said on Thursday.

Jatuporn Prompan, a Red Shirt core leader, said the prime minister and his Cabinet should resign if the clip (which he described as sounding authentic, as the speech was so smooth) was indeed genuine.

If the street rally turns ugly tomorrow, Abhisit could be forced to order the use of force.

(Published in The Star on August 29, 2009)